South Africa: Is this the end of the dream?

South Africa began its miraculous transformation to democracy in 1994. Nelson Mandela - a sole example of leadership in our generation - was at the helm. People rallied to the call for unity and transformation. The process had begun. A declining economy was transformed into one of grow into one of growth. The nation united behind the new leadership.

Mandela was not a power seeker, and chose to withdraw from the race at the next election.

Thabo Mbeki became the new leader. His term in office has proven to be worse than dissapointing. Initially, he chose the side of the Aids denialists. He denied the link between HIV and AIDS. He asserted that poverty was the cause. He rejected the call for anti-retrovirals, citing the potentially harmful side-effects. The crime problem was swept under the carpet and office beared held office because if their struggle credentials. This approach was a disaster for those suffering from Aids. How many could have lived?

Zimbabwe is perhaps the bigger tragedy. In spice of ever increasing evidence that Robert Mugabe’s government was distroying the country and with it democracy, Thabo has remained a loyal friend. True, Mugabe and Zanu did provide shelter and assistance during the ’struggle’ years. But loyalty to Mugabe who had become nothing less than a dictator is not our style. Even now,with Mugabe the clear loser in the Zimbabwe election, Mr Mbeki continues to provide support. Even asMugabe’s forces inflict great terror against its own population, the support continues.

Huge emphasis has been placed on Black Economic Empowerment (BEE). A policy that has seen a small minority of the ‘previously disadvantaged’ achieving great wealth while the majority endure great poverty with no sign of relief.

While there may be forces at work that exploit the fears and dissatisfaction of under-privileged South Africans, it is perhaps the poverty itself that can take a large portion of the blame for the recent xenophobic attacks against the huge immigrant community. Like Chamberlain, Mbeki will not take a stand against a dictator and human rights violations in the neighbouring country.

The world had great hopes for South Africa. South Africans were full of hope for a better future. But as the rigours of daily life for many continue to be tough questions of survival that hope has faded. The attacks on immigrant communities in Alex and other communities throughout the country have put a sever strain on the migrant community. They have shown South Africa to the world in a negative light.

Is the dream over?

Zimbabwe run-off amidst growing suppression

As the presidential run-off election in Zimbabwe draws closer, the use of brute force to suppress the opposition has been increasing daily. The opposition leader has been detained twice in as many days. Foreign diplomats have been detained and held by Mugabe's forces. The opposition has been banned from campaigning or holding rallies. Only Zanu-PF is allowed such privileges. Mugabe and Zanu-PF are leaving no stone unturned in its effort to ensure that Mugabe wins the run-off election.

South Africa has been well positioned to influence the course of events in Zimbabwe. Unfortunately the continued 'mediation' or 'quiet diplomacy' of the South African president has proven itself to be thinly disguised support for Mugabe's despotic regime.

The roots of this support is based upon a sense of loyalty between old comrades in arms. Mugabe provided real support to the ANC during its years of struggle. When a liberation leader becomes a dictator it is time for that loyalty to fall away. Mugabe has become a despotic ruler that has laid his own country to waste. Millions of Zimbabweans are unable to live in their own country. How long can misplaced loyalty be allowed to influence the future of Zimbabwe?

South Africa provides the gateway to the country and perhaps, the key. South Africa could play a much more decisive and influential role in this sad country.

Once again we can expect Mugabe to attempt to steal the elections. If he fails in that quest can we expect military rule?

When no news is not good news - the growing crisis in Zimbabwe

Nearly four weeks after the Zimbabwean election, there is still no sign of an announcement of the winner of the presidential vote. The so-called recount of 23 constituencies carries on, but without any controls that could verify that the recount was actually more accurate than the original count. Mugabe and the ruling Zanu PF retain control of the country and have begun a campaign of violence and intimidation against those suspected of having voted for the MDC.
By now, there can hardly be a right-thinking person that doubts that the MDC won the election or that Morgan Tsvangirai won the presidential vote. There is no other possible explanation for the month-long delay in announcing the results.
Mugabe’s police, the military and the band of thugs better known as ‘war veterans’ have been let loose to intimidate, murder and torture anyone suspected of having voted for the wrong party. Riot police have been sent into the MDC headquarters and detained dozens of MDC supporters.
The only good news is that China have recalled the arms ship on its way to Zimbabwe.
The west have spoken out against Mugabe’s attempts to steal this election. But South Africa’s president Thabo Mbeki prefers to continue with his quiet diplomacy. He has continued to take a stand that denies the crisis. He refuses to make a public statement that condemns Mugabe or even one that calls for the immediate release of the presidential vote. He has called for patience while we wait for the election results to be released. Patience while MDC supporters are being beaten and driven from their homes. Patience as thousands of Zimbabweans risk their lives daily crossing through crocodile infested waters to reach South Africa as economic and political refugees.
The time for patience has passed. Decisive action is required by the world to force Mugabe to step down and to allow democracy to take its course. It is time for Zimbabwe’s friends and neighbours take a stand. Appeasement of a dictator never achieved anything in the past. It will not achieve anything now.
Hot off the press is that SADC have warned that it expects the poll result to be announced by Saturday (26 April) and will not tolerate any further delays. Perhaps we have some progress …

Mugabe reaching Orwellian proportions

The Zimbabwean election fiasco is reaching tragic proportions. Eight days after voting, the results or the presidential elections have still not been released. The opposition has claimed victory based on the counts shown outside each polling station after the election. It seems that someone wants the results delayed. The high court has deferred its decision as to whether it can hear the case until Monday.

In the meantime, Robert Mugabe has called for a recount of the vote.

I imagine that the order went something like this: "These results are incorrect. Recount the votes. If the result is wrong again, then recount again. Do this until you get the correct result." Of course, the MDC managed a majority in spite of widespread rigging on the part of Zanu-PF.

What is the world doing about this bizarre situation? South African president Thabo Mbeki wants to wait and see what happens. A strange perspective from a country with a firm committment to democracy. Is this due to misplaced loyalty? True, Mugabe did provide support to the ANC during the years of struggle. But he has since become a tyrant, a despot. While Zimbabweans starve, his wife is on a shopping spree to South Africa.

What about the rest of the world? The United Nations? Are we powerless to do anything?

Hope dims for Zimbabweans in South Africa

This morning I spoke to one of the millions of Zimbabweans in South Africa. “We were hoping that we would be able to go home soon” she said. “Now it doesn’t look so good.”

She has been living in South Africa for about ten years working as a maid. Over the years, all the goods that she has accumulated have been sent back ‘home’ to Zimbabwe in preparation for the day that sanity would return to the country.

Wherever you go in South Africa you will find Zimbabweans. Unable to live in their home country, they live in South Africa – usually as illegal immigrants – working as maids, gardeners, labourers, security guards or waiters or waitresses. Whatever they accumulate is sent home. In reality, most of these people are refugees. Many have risked their lives crossing the border to South Africa.

This election brought great hope to the Zimbabwean community in South Africa. With a new government, life in Zimbabwe could be turned around. With the possibility of earning a living back home, many would return.

Now, with Mugabe holding on tightly the optimism has faded. An election win isn’t enough. The presidential run-off is likely to be rigged. The international community are committed to helping the new government – but only once Mugabe goes. Is there still hope for Zimbabwe?

Do the elections spell hope for Zimbabwe?

Twenty-eight years of rule by Robert Mugabe has proven to be something of a disaster for Zimbabwe. As the years have passed, repression accompanied by economic ruin have increased in intensity. Over three million Zimbabweans have relocated to South Africa - most of them illegally - so as to be able to earn a living.

The weekend saw the latest round of elections in Zimbabwe. The results of each polling station were counted and posted outside. The opposition Movement for Democratic Change or MDC led by Morgan Tsvangirai have tallied up these votes to indicate a land-slide victory for the opposition. But the official and far from independent electoral commission is releasing the results at a snails pace.

Perhaps the trickle technique is a way to test the patience of the population eager for change. If violence breaks out it could be a pretext for military rule with Robert Mugabe still at the helm. Maybe the ruling party just needs more time to rig the results to achieve a win. Or could it simply be that the electoral commission are totally incompetent and very slow at doing their jobs.

This morning a caller to a radio station said that it felt like New Year's Eve in Zimbabwe as jubilant crowds of people celebrated the (expected) opposition victory. As the day drew slowly on the festive mood has been subdued and replaced with the realisation that even with the majority of votes going the MDC, Zanu PF could still try to claim victory.

48 hours after voting closed only 52 seats have been announced. By now, the government should have conceded defeat. The new government should be preparing to start with the huge task of reconstruction of this devastated land.

If Mugabe does steal this election - something that is beginning to look like a reality - what will the world do? What will the United Nations do? What will Zimbabwe's neighbours do? What will the South African government do? Continue with its policy of 'quiet diplomacy'?

The answer, of course, is nothing. Absolutely nothing.